A just-published survey by Innovative Research had the Tories at 38 per cent to the Liberals’ 37 per cent.
Although the results would likely translate into a Liberal minority government, it’s the first of more than two dozen polls published since the March 23 start of the campaign that had the Tories out front.
“The Conservatives have narrowed the Liberal momentum gap. The Liberal campaign is still scoring more points with more people, but their advantage is much smaller,” declared a statement by Innovative Research.
Surveys released by seven other major pollsters (Leger, Nanos, Mainstreet Research, Pollara, Angus Reid Institute, Liaison Strategies, Ekos) all continue to show the Conservatives trailing by as much as nine points.
A Nanos poll published Wednesday, for instance, had the Liberals at 45.8 per cent to the Conservatives’ 36.7 per cent.
A Postmedia-Leger poll, released Wednesday, had the Liberals at 44 per cent and the Conservatives at 38 per cent.
Aside from the Innovative Research poll, the only other point of light for the Tories has been an Abacus Data poll published Sunday which showed the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 39 per cent.
Given the “efficiency of the Liberal vote,” however, Abacus noted that a tie is effectively a Liberal victory.
In the past two federal elections, the Conservatives have actually garnered a plurality of the popular vote, but won far fewer seats than the Liberals.
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